We’re about to see the new Government trying to win arguments with facts… but why won’t it work?
We’ve all done it. We’ve researched our subject matter, formulated our argument and checked our facts. We’ve then gone into a meeting or call with a self-assured belief that we can present our facts and gain consensus; changing people’s minds by being objective and fact-based. And then it fails. Why?
Well, we approach arguments (or simply attempts to sway opinion) as falling into the order of facts > opinions when actually it is emotions > opinions > filter facts. This is a process called confirmation bias, and it’s one of the most common cognitive biases/
Confirmation bias is our bias towards focusing on, and giving greater weight to, evidence that supports our existing beliefs (or opinions) and discounting evidence that contradicts them.
We’ll start to see this in greater effect now we have a ‘new’ Government in place and they’re desperate to change our opinions with their facts. However, politics is particularly emotive, and our opinions about the validity of a political party’s argument is way more complex than we think.
Our political beliefs, and therefore our likelihood of believing the ‘facts’ presented to us, form from our family background, demographic, race, level of education and experience. Politics is often ‘handed down’ from our families; generations of people vote for a party that they’re lead to believe supports them and their kin.
As such, we filter the ‘facts’ presented to us by political parties we don’t support, irrespective of the objectivity of their arguments. Simply put, if we don’t WANT to believe, we jus won’t, irrespective of the facts.
Understanding confirmation bias is critical to understanding that you might persuade someone to do something (against their will) but you can’t win minds with just facts.
That said, it won’t stop them trying!
