What is it: the Hindsight Bias is our view of past events as having been more predictable, now we know the outcome, which leads us to overestimate the predictability of the future…
“I know I said it would be on time, but looking back, I always knew it would be late…”
Overview
Why do outcomes that are unpredictable, seem, so predictable, but only when we know the outcome.
When we look back at the outcomes of previous decisions, we tend to be unable to be honest if we were wrong. We also tend to spot numerous signs that now look ‘obvious’ in retrospect, even though, at the time, they were ambiguous, vague or easily explained or discounted.
One of the most dangerous results of this bias, is how we then project forward, and believe we can reliably predict the outcome of future situations. Rewriting our view of history, can make us dangerously overconfident.
Although similar to the Dunning-Kruger Effect, this is not linked, specifically, to our naivety or lack of skills. There are though, some parellels with what we now call ‘gaslighting’, where we try to diminish past feelings, emotions, actions, beliefs or memories, although ‘gaslighting’ is often seen as a darker, more controlling action.
There is also a link to the attribution bias, where, often in retrospect, we assign favourable outcomes to our own actions, but unfavourable outcomes to the actions of others, or to ‘unpredictable’ or ‘uncontrollable’ events.
What can we do to avoid this?
Avoiding this bias is simply about being honest, and keeping a record of your actions, beliefs and opinions, at the time of events, so that, in retrospect, you have documented, objective evidence from the time.
Examples
- Nobody saw the Covid-19 pandemic coming, and we believed we were ready for a large, global pandemic, if one did occur. Now we have seen, in retrospect, that in fact, we were woefully unprepared, most people will tell you they knew we wouldn’t be able to cope.
- Politicians are particularly adept at rewriting the past. Once unfavourable outcomes have occurred, they will often try to make you believe they predicted the outcome, but continued for reasons outside of their control. You will often hear them saying “It was different then”, or “Things have changed, and at the time, we didn’t have all the information”.
